Based on current climatic conditions and activity in 2025 to date, this report forecasts:

• Similar numbers of tropical storms (TS) and severe typhoon (STY) are forecasted to form in Pacific Southwest and South China Sea in 2025 compared to past years (with a total of 24-26 and 8-10 respectively). Meanwhile, fewer number of TS are forecasted to make landfall in China (approximately 5-7).
• The number of tropical cyclones (TC) expected to impact overall China in 2025 are forecasted to reach 12-14, similar to the LTCA. Though larger numbers of TC (9-12 to be more specific) are expected to impact South China and East China in 2025, slightly higher than the LTCA. Shanghai is expecting a normal year, with a total of 2.5 approximately. The forecast above indicates a significant influence of TC in Southeastern China, while the overall risk of TC disasters in China is close to the LTCA. It is important to pay close attention to the possible impact of extreme TC.

Read the full publication