Based on current climatic conditions and activity in 2023 to date, this report forecasts:

• 23–25 tropical storms (TS) are forecasted to form in the Northwest Pacific Basin (NWP) and the South China Sea (SCS) in 2023, which is lower than the long-term climatic average (LTCA). The number of strong typhoons (STY) will be slightly above average (about 9–11), while 7-9 TSs are forecasted to make landfall in China, which is slightly higher than the LTCA.
• The number of tropical cyclones (TC) that are expected to affect China is forecasted to reach 13-15, which is slightly above the average, whilst 8-10 TCs are forecasted to affect South and East China, in line with LTCA. Shanghai may experience more TC this year (2-3), highlighting that the risks of natural disasters may be higher than average.

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